This is the latest of our 30 team previews, which will run through March 30.
It feels like just yesterday that the Philadelphia Phillies were world champions. Facts, however, are more important than feelings Roger Staubach T Shirts , and the fact is that 2008 was not yesterday. It was six years ago, and the time since then is forever growing longer.
The Phillies are in trouble because in order to be succe sful, they need the stars of 2008 to perform like its 2008well, its 2014.
Ryan Howard is a 240-pound 34-year-old who has played in only 151 games over the past two years because his body has been failing him. Chase Utley is 35 and, as well as he hit last season, with an .823 OPS, he is not the 30-homer power source he was during a run of four straight Silver Sluggers from 2006-09. Jimmy Rollins is 35 and, in the five seasons since he got his ring, he has a .317 on-base percentage.
Ryan Howard (AP Photo)
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Howard has three years left on his contract, at $25 million a season, plus an option for 2017 that is sure to be declined. Utley signed an extension last year with vesting options through 2018basically, so long as he stays healthy, hell be with the Phillies. Rollins has a vesting option after this year. The Phillies are stuck watching their stars age, so they doubled down on that idea in the offseason, re-signing catcher Carlos Ruiz to a three-year contract plus a 2017 option, and bringing in outfielder Marlon Byrd on a two-year deal with a vesting option. They also inked RHP A.J. Burnett to a one-year deal. Ruiz is 35, Byrd is 36 and Burnett is 37. With big contracts making a rebuild a no-go, Philadelphia is going for the gusto.
The problem with going for the gusto is obvious. For the slight chance of everything breaking right and aging players all simultaneously putting it together for one last hurrah, there is an exponentially larger chance of crashing and burning. The Phillies scored the third-fewest runs in the National League last year. There is no position on the field where they can legitimately look and say were sure to be better there. The best chance of an improvement is with Howard having a full, healthy season. Even then, a 35-homer campaign would be his most since 2009.
While the big names of the lineup are not as inspiring as they once were, the stars of Philadelphias starting rotation still shine brightly, with Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee serving as legitimate co-aces and Burnett likely providing quality innings as well (although Hamels is expected to mi s most of April). The problem for the Phillies is that they play in a division where starting pitching is a near-universal strength, which puts Hamels and Lee into plenty of pitchers duelshence their combined 22-22 Troy Aikman Jerseys record last season.
Cliff Lee (AP Photo)
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Kyle Kendrick also remains an enigmaeffective throughout his career when used out of the bullpen but inconsistent as a starter. Kendrick is 29, which is a bit old to still be trying to put it all together, but he also does show flashes, like in his three-hit shutout of the Mets last April or his eight-strikeout game against the Braves in September.
To round out the rotation, the Phillies signed Roberto Hernandez, formerly known as Fausto Carmona, and formerly known as an All-Star for the Cleveland Indians. Hernandez had a miserable go with Tampa Bay in 2013, posting a 4.89 ERA in 151 innings that included 24 home runs allowed. Bringing him to a homer-happy park in Philadelphia may not be the answer.
The starters are of particular importance because the Phillies bullpen is a hodgepodge leading up to closer Jonathan Papelbon, a free-agent bust whose contract has proven impo sible to dump. Papelbons fastball has dipped from 95 mph during his heyday with the Red Sox to 92 mph last year, and his strikeout rate has dropped from 12.2 per nine innings in 2011 to 8.3 in 2013. That explains why nobody wants to trade for himand the Phillies are not exactly burning all of their anytime minutes trying to get out from under Howards contract, either.
All they can do is go with what theyve got, and hope that there is a rip in the fabric of the space-time continuum. Such happenings, however, are quite rare.
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Projected lineup C: Carlos Ruiz1B: Ryan Howard2B: Chase UtleySS: Jimmy Rollins3B: Cody AscheLF: Domonic BrownCF: Ben RevereRF: Marlon ByrdRotation LHP Cliff LeeLHP Cole HamelsRHP A.J. BurnettRHP Kyle KendrickRHP Roberto HernandezCloser Jonathan Papelbon
Scout’s view
A major league scout analyzes SP Cliff Lee:
He was just a victim of bad luck (last season). He Dallas Cowboys Accessories s a quality pitcher. Hes a No. 1 or No. 2 for anybody and hes proven that he can pitch big games. It was just coincidence that he didnt win. Their lineup wasnt very healthy and it wasnt very good at times. It just happened to be bad luck whenever he pitched. They didnt score many runs. Its happened to Hamels before, too.
View from the other dugout
A scout’s take on the Phillies:
Theyre kind of in transition between an older, veteran team and, well, No. 1, everything starts with pitching. Hamels, Lee … those guys have got to be good. Anybody that loses Roy Halladay in his prime, you cant replace that. That hurts … Youve got to get (Ryan) Howard and (Chase) Utley back to some degree of where they were.
The outfield has a chance if Marlon Byrd can pick up where he was last year, (Ben) Revere can stay healthy and Domonic Brown can take that next step. The outfield could be solid.
Jimmy Rollins is kind of hanging in there. We know hes not going to be the MVP type of player that he was, but he can still be an above-average player. Those are all question marks.
It was really good for them to keep Ruiz, but theyre caught in between being a younger team and sticking with the veterans that helped them win a World Series.
Impact newcomer
Byrd returns to the place where he began his major league career in 2002 and played through 2005, when he was traded for Endy Chavez. Byrd hit 13 home runs in 256 games for the Phillies then. Now, hell be counted on to be more like the hitter who belted 24 out of the park for the Mets and Pirates in 2013.
Key stat
The Phillies hit 140 home runs last season, their fewest since banging 126 in 1998, when the team played Drew Pearson T Shirts at the much more spacious Veterans Stadium. The 610 runs were Philadelphias lowest total in a non-strike season since 1988.
Bottom line
If you stripped away the names and the reputations, and looked solely at recent performance, you would have very little idea what the Phillies have been trying to accomplish here. Loyalty is nice, but there is such a thing as being loyal to a fault.
This content originally appeared in the Sporting News 2014 Baseball Yearbook. To order a copy, .